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Why Trump’s “Strong Diplomacy” Faces Recurring Obstacles
Through three international power plays, we dissect the complexities behind Trump’s foreign policy dilemmas and their global implications.
1. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Strategic Chess Match
1.1 Failed Economic Leverage
Trump’s 25-50% special tariff threat on Russian oil purchasers reveals:
- Putin’s internal “long-term war” planning
- Russian officials’ dismissal of Trump’s political motives
- Unconfirmed leaders’ phone call tensions
1.2 Ukraine’s Defiant Stance
Zelensky’s resistance highlights core disputes:
- Rejection of aid-for-loan schemes
- Criticism of revised mineral agreements
- U.S. demands for rare earth control
2. Iran Nuclear Deal: Beyond Military Threats
2.1 Maximum Pressure Strategy
Trump’s demands include:
- Iran’s acceptance of new nuclear terms
- Houthi attack accountability threats
- Implied air strike warnings
2.2 Iran’s Counter-Strategy
Key developments:
- Houthi attack on USS Truman (March 30)
- Expert assessments of Trump’s miscalculations
- Iran’s regional influence resilience
3. Greenland Incident: Small Nation’s Resolve
3.1 Failed Diplomatic Visit
Key events:
- Vice President Vance’s abbreviated trip
- Local “Yankees go home” protests
- Prime Minister’s firm rejection
3.2 Resource vs. Autonomy
Core conflict elements:
- 12% global rare earth reserves
- U.S. development pressure
- 56,000 residents’ self-governance stand
4. Domestic Pressures: Triple Constraints
4.1 Establishment Backlash
Key issues:
- “Group chat door” controversy
- Waltz investigation
- Hoggess public criticism
4.2 Economic Turmoil
Critical factors:
- Tesla stock crash chain reaction
- Musk’s May resignation announcement
- Nationwide Tesla protests
5. Strategic Miscalculations: Business Mindset Limits
5.1 International Situation Misjudgment
Key overestimations:
- Tariff policy effectiveness
- Russia’s strategic resolve
- Small nation resistance
5.2 Domestic Policy Idealism
Problematic approaches:
- Election-cycle economic manipulation
- “Destroy-rebuild” market panic
- Over-reliance on personal negotiation
6. Future Trends: Four Scenarios
6.1 Russia-Ukraine Probabilities
Possible outcomes:
- 35% short-term ceasefire
- 50% long-term conflict
- 15% regional war escalation
6.2 Iran Nuclear Deadline
Critical factors:
- June agreement deadline
- Israeli military movements
- Yemen war developments
Conclusion: International Politics Equation
Trump’s diplomacy reveals fundamental truths:
- Economic interests ≠ strategic security
- Military threats require political solutions
- Small nation interests matter
- Domestic support = diplomatic foundation
The next six months will test Trump’s strategy – a critical observation period for global power dynamics.
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