U.S. Customs suddenly changed its import rules on the night of April 11, with tariffs on smartphones, laptops and other electronic products being temporarily exempted. This policy change is like a boulder thrown into the surface of a lake, stirring up waves in the U.S.-China trade arena. In this article, we will analyze the business impact behind the policy change in easy-to-understand language, and bring you to understand the key turnaround that Chinese overseas enterprises are experiencing.
I. The core content of the policy adjustment
1.1 Scope of exempted products
The latest US Customs document shows that import tariffs on smartphones, laptops, routers and their components will no longer be subject to “reciprocal tariffs”. This means that these products may avoid additional tariffs of up to 125%.
1.2 Controversial Points
There are currently two controversial interpretations:
- Some believe that it only applies to products with more than 20% U.S.-based content
- Industry experts have pointed out that the document is vague and may actually cover a wider range
It is worth noting that the U.S. has not yet made it clear whether or not these products will still be subject to the original 20% base tariff. According to 2023 trade data, China’s exports of consumer electronics to the U.S. totaled $96 billion, or 19 percent of total exports to the U.S.
II. Impact Assessment of Policy Adjustment
2.1 Grading the Degree of Industry Impact
Through interviews with 20 industry experts, we found that the degree of impact, in descending order, is as follows:
- B2B Foreign Trade Enterprises
- Cross-border E-commerce Platforms
- Direct Mail Parcel Business
- Bulky Commodity Transportation
- Low-Margin Lightweight and Small Items
- High-Margin Lightweight and Small Items
2.2 Specific Case Study
- An apparel e-commerce company in Shenzhen: Profit of $20 T-shirt shrinks from $2 to $0.5
- Furniture exporter: Costs soar 300%, forced to raise prices by 30% to weaken competitiveness
- Yiwu Small Commodities: $5 cell phone case faces threat from Southeast Asian alternatives
Logistics cost changes best reflect the actual impacts:
- China-U.S. courier unit price soars from $0.4-1.4 USD/kg to 1.8-1.4 USD/kg. Kg skyrocketed to US$1.8-3.2/kg
- Some freight forwarders suspend low-priced package tax service, and the cost of compliance declaration increases by 40%
3. Enterprises’ survival strategies diverge
3.1 Early warning of hard-hit areas
- B2B foreign trade: a lamp factory has been shut down for a month on standby
- Direct mail e-commerce: 90% tax rate makes the strategy of splitting orders to avoid tax ineffective
- Low-price white label: 50% of merchants are expected to be out of the market within half a year
3.2 Buffer zone analysis
Enterprises with the following characteristics show stronger risk resistance:
- √ Brand premium over 35%
- √ Mastering core technology patents
- √ Adopting overseas warehouse layout
- √ Product unit price higher than USD 80
Typical case: a bluetooth earphone brand in Shenzhen still maintains a 25% gross margin even after the tariffs are added. This type of enterprise through the early layout of R & D and brand building, access to price adjustment space.
4. Response plan of cross-border e-commerce
4.1 Platform strategy adjustment
The main platforms are pushing forward three major changes:
- Regional diversification: Temu plans to compress the share of the US market to 30%
- Logistics upgrading: SHEIN has built three forward warehouses in the US
- Product high-end: the platform traffic is tilted to middle- and high-priced commodities
4.2 Innovation of operation mode
- The share of semi-hosting mode is increased to 60%
- The share of Brazil localization is increased to 60%
- Brazilian localized production network covers 2000+ factories
- Big data stocking system shortens the cycle to 15 days
However, fast-fashion enterprises are facing special difficulties: stocking in advance may miss the fashion trend, and real-time replenishment is restricted by the transportation time.
5. Chain reaction of the industry chain
5.1 Cross-border services explode
- Consultation on setting up factories in Vietnam increases by 150% per month
- Demand for Customs compliance services surges by 300%
- Overseas warehouse construction costs drop by 20%
5.2 A new ecosystem is being formed
A case study of a law firm in Shanghai reveals that the service of helping enterprises to establish a “tariff firewall” has become more and more important for the industry. A case study of a law firm in Shanghai shows that the service package to help enterprises build a “tariff firewall” includes:
- Multi-domestic certification
- Cross-border tax planning
- Supply chain decentralization solution
The service fee for this kind of service reaches $50,000-200,000/year, and the demand still exceeds supply.
VI. Future Trend Forecast
6.1 Short-term Fluctuation Warning
- Trade in electronic parts and components may recover rapidly
- Tariff arbitrage window will occur from June to August
- Used equipment exports may surge
6.2 Long-term Transformation Direction
Industry experts recommend focusing on the layout:
- ▶ Region: Southeast Asia, Middle East, Latin America emerging markets
- ▶ Areas: medical equipment, new energy parts, industrial software
- ▶ Capabilities: digital customs clearance system, intelligent inventory management
(Conclusion)
This tariff adjustment is both a crisis and a turnaround. As the head of a logistics company in Shenzhen said, “What’s more important now is who can learn new sailing techniques in the storm.” For Chinese companies going overseas, enhancing product value, optimizing supply chain layout, and establishing a compliance system will become the key to survival and development. Those who can adapt quickly may be able to seize a new window of opportunity in this industry reshuffle.
