I. U.S. Stocks Plunge: Trump’s Tariffs Trigger Market Panic

1.1 Technology stocks become the hardest hit

Apple Inc. bore the brunt of a 9.3% plunge in its share price in a single day. The tech giant, which relies on a global supply chain, has more than 80% of its suppliers located in Asia, with China bearing the main production link. Trump’s new policy requires imported electronic devices to pay a 40% tariff, directly affecting the US domestic market, which accounts for 40% of Apple’s total sales.

1.2 Cost Crisis Conveyed Throughout the Industry

Wall Street analysts estimate that the new tariffs will increase the cost of Apple products by 43%. In the face of fierce competition in the global cell phone market, Apple is neither able to transfer costs nor compress profit margins. This dilemma also appears in Dell, HP and other technology companies that rely on overseas manufacturing.

1.3 Sports Brands Suffer Blow

Nike shares fell 13% in a single day, and the U.S. national brand concentrates 65% of its production capacity in Asia (25% in China and 40% in Vietnam). The new tariffs not only push up the cost of purchases for American consumers, but also threaten the stability of companies’ global supply chains.

Second, the “suicidal” logic of tariff policy

2.1 The illusion of returning manufacturing

Trump claims to force companies to return to the United States to build factories through tariffs. But the reality of the data show: the United States manufacturing hourly wage of 30 dollars, 10 times that of Vietnam (3 dollars), and the lack of a complete supporting industry chain. If Apple moves 200 core suppliers back to the U.S., it will take at least 7-8 years to build the cycle.

2.2 Costing Disaster

Even if it bears 40% tariff, the enterprise cost is still lower than producing in the US. In the case of smartphones, for example, the cost of producing in the U.S. will increase by more than 200%, not including the huge investment in rebuilding the supply chain. Most companies would rather pay the tariffs than choose to relocate.

2.3 Collective warning from economists

A Wall Street Journal survey showed that 82% of economists believe that the new policy will lead to a

• U.S. inflation to rise by 2-3 percentage points
• 30% faster job losses in manufacturing
• Consumer purchasing power fell 5-8%

Third, allies countermeasures: Canada fights back

3.1 Electricity tariffs precision strike

As a major supplier of electricity to the three northern states of the U.S. (Michigan, Minnesota, and New York), Canada has announced a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. This led directly to:

• An 18% increase in energy costs for factories
• 100 Canadian dollars (about 73 U.S. dollars) increase in monthly electricity bills for residents
• 5% decrease in manufacturing competitiveness

3.2 Retaliation on Agricultural Products

Canada targeted U.S. exports:

• Beef tariffs increased to 38 percent
• Dairy tariffs increased to 42 percent
• Corn imports cut by 60%

3.3 Fierce political and business backlash

Minnesota Governor publicly denounced: “This policy is hurting America itself!” More than 200 U.S. companies sent a joint letter to the White House asking for a reassessment of the tariff policy.

IV. Policy loopholes: fatal flaws in Trump’s strategy

4.1 Collapse of the alliance system

Unlike Biden’s alliance strategy, Trump has offended all major trading partners:

• EU suspends transatlantic trade agreement negotiations
• Japan canceled the original investment plan
• Canada launches Section 301 investigation

4.2 Failure of alternative programs

While Vietnam has promised to cooperate with the U.S., it has had limited practical effect:

• The U.S.-Vietnam trade deficit remains at $100 billion in 2024
• Vietnam’s imports from China account for 72% of its exports to the U.S.
• U.S. exports to Vietnam are only $15.1 billion, and zero tariffs are not a real benefit.

4.3 Wave of officials leaving the country en masse

Finance Minister Besant has submitted his resignation, revealing in a private conversation, “Continuing these policies will destroy my professional credibility.” Three senior officials from the Department of Energy resigned one after another, paralyzing the policy team.

V. Market Forecast: The Crisis Will Continue to Escalate

5.1 Technology sector warning

Goldman Sachs latest report states:

• Semiconductor industry costs will increase by 25-30%
• Consumer electronics margins compressed to less than 5%
• R & D investment forced to cut 15-20%

5.2 Job market deterioration

Manufacturing job losses are accelerating and are expected to occur in the next 6 months:

• 100,000 people face unemployment
• 250,000 jobs moving overseas
• Hourly wages fall by $3-$5

5.3 Consumer Woes Intensify

Retailers such as Walmart confirm:

• Price increases of 12-15% on electronics
• Clothing and footwear prices increased by 8-10%.
• Appliances prices increased by 5-7%